Abstract: Most analyses aiming to explain election trends are based on a partisan model of electoral competition developed by Anthony Downs (1957). According to this model, political parties compete for power and devise political agendas consistent with the voter preference distribution. In polls, voters are then asked to choose between different political options. Moreover, the model considers the electoral supply to depend on established political parties and assumes that contestants for offices focus on representing a party they hope will select them through various procedures such as caucuses or nominations. For instance, the number of contesting parties in election districts would depend on magnitude and would follow the Duverger’s law. However, the municipal electoral supply in Canada cannot be explained with that theoretical framework, namely because the local level in Canada has no structured partisan system. In other words, in Canada, the political dynamics and polarization found in the upper levels of government are unknown at the local level. Therefore, when casting their votes for municipal elections, voters find themselves with no other option than to vote for independent candidates. This paper aims to answer to the following question. Which factors influence the choice of a citizen to become a candidate at the local level in Canada? To address our research question, we draw on an original dataset of electoral data and institutional and demographic characteristics of Canada’s 100 largest cities over three electoral cycles (n = 300). Using a multivariate regression analysis, we test several hypotheses to explain the number of mayoral candidates in major Canadian cities. Our research tests three sets of hypotheses: those related to (1) the socio-spatial context within which local elections take place; (2) the institutional design of local elections and representation; and (3) the competitiveness of local elections. Our results provide a first-ever portrait of the factors that influence local candidate nomination in major Canadian cities.

Abstract: Drawing on data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N survey of voters conducted before and after the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election, this paper examines why city council incumbents have such a high re-election rate. The paper finds that the "incumbency advantage" in Toronto is largely driven by the low level of information on ward races available to voters. The paper discuses the implications of this finding for local democracy in Toronto

Paper / Communication

Abstract: In recent years there has been much discussion about deploying digital voting in Canadian elections. Two methods of digital voting – internet and telephone – are presently used at the municipal level in Canada. Growth in municipal use of digital voting is expected to double by 2018, reaching more than 230 cities and towns. Interestingly in many cases, communities with less than 100,000 electors are opting to offer fully electronic elections, eliminating paper voting altogether. These structural changes to voting have a number of effects on elections, but one that has yet to be examined is how these advances are changing the nature of local election campaigns for candidates. Drawing on a survey of 300 local candidates in the 2014 Ontario municipal elections this paper answers the question: How does digital voting affect local election campaigns? The paper discusses candidates' observations about the impacts of digital voting, whether these changes are positive or negative, and what these structural advances in voting mean for the traditional election campaign. Finally, we conclude with strategies candidates must consider when campaigning in an electronic voting environment and discuss the impact for local electoral democracy in Canada.