Political Behaviour/Sociology

Session: F5(a) - Voter Turnout and Abstention

Date: May 30, 2017 | Time: 03:15pm to 04:45pm | Location: POD-366 (Podium Building)| iOS / Outlook

Chair/Président: Alexandre Blanchet (Université de Montréal)

Discussant/Commentateur: Marc-André Bodet (Université Laval)

Valérie-Anne Mahéo (Université de Montréal), André Blais (Université de Montréal) : Where Does Turnout Increase Come From? A Study of Electoral Participation in the 2011 and 2015 Canadian Federal Elections
Abstract: Many Western democracies have been facing low and declining levels of turnout for decades now. In this context, the increase in turnout in the 2015 Canadian federal election stands out, with a gain of almost 8 percentage point from the turnout in 2011. Even more, this increase was mostly concentrated among the youngest age groups, those who are known to generally participate the least in elections. In fact, the 18 to 24 year-olds participated in the 2015 general election at a rate that was 18 percentage points higher than levels of the 2011 general election, and the 25 to 24 year-olds at a rate that was 12 percentage points higher (Elections Canada, 2016). While scholars have been investigating for many years the question ‘where does turnout decline come from’ (Blais et al. 2004), we now get to investigate a more positive question: where does turnout increase come from? Using the 2011 and 2015 Canadian Election Studies, we examine which factors affected differentially youth in 2015, compared to 2011, but also compared to other age groups who did not experience such a substantial change in their voting rate. We will investigate several hypotheses and assess the impact of different factors such as, leader evaluations, issue voting, closeness of the race, and government evaluations. Learning about the reasons for this substantial change will help us understand whether this was just a temporary phenomenon, or if we could potentially expect a deviation from the general trend of decline in turnout.

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Charles Tessier (Université Laval) : Impact des catastrophes naturelles sur la dynamique électorale: Le cas de la crise du verglas de 1998 au Québec
Abstract: Lors de la crise du verglas de 1998, la gestion de crise exceptionnelle du gouvernement du Québec a amené les adversaires du Parti québécois, alors au pouvoir, à redouter les gains politiques que ce dernier pourrait en retirer. Évidemment, ce type de considérations est rarement mentionné dans le discours public des élus. Une telle inquiétude, cependant, ne pouvait être ni confirmée ni démentie, puisque les conséquences de ces évènements sur les électeurs restent peu connues. Les conséquences psychologiques et matérielles sur les victimes lors de telles catastrophes peuvent-elles être suffisantes pour faire dérailler l’électeur rationnel au profit d’un électeur plus émotif? L’objectif de cette étude sera de répondre à cette question en évaluant si ces évènements ont eu des conséquences politiques sur les électeurs sinistrés. Plus spécifiquement, les analyses porteront sur leur appui au Parti québécois ainsi que leur participation électorale. Pour ce faire, des outils de Geographic Information System (GIS) seront utilisés afin de croiser les données géographiques disponibles sur les désastres avec celles des sections de vote. Également, la nature aléatoire de tels évènements sera mise à profit afin d’élaborer un devis d’expérience naturelle. Les résultats indiquent qu’un effet est parfois observable, mais pas dans la majorité des cas, une conclusion qui va à l’encontre de la majorité du cursus de littérature sur le sujet, provenant principalement des États-Unis. ‬‬

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Daniel Stockemer (University of Ottawa), Michael Wigginton (University of Ottawa) : Weather and Turnout: When It Rains, Voters Stay Home
Abstract: Driven by the concern that low levels of voter turnout are a challenge for the well-being of democracy in Canada and elsewhere, numerous studies have identified the institutional (e.g. frequent elections and a plurality electoral systems), socio-economic (e.g. a large population size and high income inequalities) and cultural indicators (e.g. high levels of corruption) for low turnout. We will add a less studied indicator to the list, namely poor weather. We hypothesize that some voters will forgo the opportunity to vote, when it rains and/ or when it is cold. We examine both weather features in the Canadian context, examining the influence of precipitation and temperature on turnout at the district level in federal parliamentary elections from 2006 through 2015. In more detail, we use riding-level data on voter turnout gathered from Elections Canada and weather records gathered from Environment Canada, as well as adequate control variables such as the ideological composition of the riding, the number of parties on the ballot and the closeness of the race at the district level. Our pooled time series analysis reveals that rainfall decreases citizens’ likelihood to turn out, whereas cold weather has no influence. In more detail, our model predicts that much rainfall on Election Day decreases turnout by approximately 4 percentage points compared to no rain.

Paper or Poster / Communication ou Présentation visuelle

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