A01 - Social Cleavages and Canadian Elections
Date: Jun 2 | Time: 08:45am to 10:15am | Location:
Chair/Président/Présidente : Samuel Baltz (University of Michigan)
Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Christophe Cochrane (University of Toronto)
Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Richard Johnston (University of British Columbia)
Do Voters Discriminate Against Working Class Candidates? Evidence from New Brunswick, 1967-2018: Quinn Albaugh (Princeton University)
Abstract: Do voters discriminate against working class candidates? I answer this question using an original dataset of candidates and electoral results on New Brunswick provincial elections from 1967-2018. New Brunswick provides three theoretical and methodological advantages. First, Elections New Brunswick publishes the self-reported occupations of every candidate in general elections. Second, New Brunswick’s use of multi-member plurality elections before 1974 provide for a unique research design of comparing candidates from the same party but different class backgrounds. Third, New Brunswick provides a case study of an ethnically divided society, in contrast to the emphasis of past work on contexts in which class politics are more salient. The results contribute to debates over class, elections and representation.
"Fellow travelers" No More: The Rise and Fall of the (Anglo-)Catholic-Liberal Connection: Éric Desrochers (University of Ottawa)
Abstract: In his 2005 CPSA Presidential Address, André Blais remarked that Catholics’ support of the federal Liberal Party remained one of most important and intriguing political behaviours in Canadian politics. Before and since, many Canadian political scientists have endeavoured to explain this phenomenon, with limited success. In 2017, Richard Johnston offered what has been, so far, the most convincing answer to this puzzle.
However, even Johnston’s most recent effort does not fully answer the following: What factors explain the rise and fall of support for the federal Liberal Party among non-Francophone Catholics? In this study, I examine this question using electoral results and riding-level data, in order to determine the fluctuations of this behaviour over time, to then look for answers in the politically salient questions of the time.
I find that Anglo-Catholics’ support for the Liberals initially emerged as an expression of their “otherness”, which waned as the nature of the political debate moved from questions surrounding Canadian identity, to post-material social issues. This coincides with shifts in the makeup of Canada’s political and social elites, which passed from being predominantly “White, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant”, to more generally White, Christian and Anglophone, in the face of an increasingly visible ethnic diversity.
Anti-Muslim Sentiment in Canada: Do Liberal Frames Persuade Liberals?: Meghan Snider (University of Toronto)
Abstract: Scholars have observed that anti-Muslim appeals in liberal democracies are increasingly phrased in liberal terms. Anti-Muslim politicians cast Muslims as having illiberal values on issues like gender equality and religious freedom, and argue for their exclusion on that basis. This paper asks whether these liberal frames are successful at persuading Canadian liberals to adopt anti-Muslim positions. Using observational data from the 2015 Canadian Election Study (CES) and experimental data generated in an original experiment, this paper reveals the structure of anti-Muslim sentiment in Canada and tests whether liberal frames, like those used by the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election, persuade liberals to adopt anti-Muslim attitudes. This paper makes contributions to the literatures on race and ethnicity, multiculturalism, elections, and public opinion in Canada.
The Impact of Votes in Canadian Elections: Christopher Cochrane (University of Toronto), Jean-François Godbout (Université de Montréal), Ludovic Rheault (University of Toronto), Phil Triadafilopoulos (University of Toronto)
Abstract: There are incompatible accounts of electoral clout in Canadian elections. Some argue, for example, that Canada’s electoral system disadvantages voters from immigrant communities because these voters are more likely to reside in densely populated areas. Densely populated areas, in turn, have electoral districts with larger populations than do the districts in rural areas. In this way, the per-capita clout of Canadians in densely populated areas, who are more likely to be immigrants, is smaller than the clout of Canadians in rural areas. Yet, others argue that immigrants in Canada may be particularly influential because they tend to live in highly competitive districts that ultimately decide the outcome of Canadian elections. In this account, the major parties are particularly careful not to alienate foreign-born Canadians, precisely because of the critical position that these Canadians occupy in deciding election outcomes. In a crucial respect, these accounts cannot both be right. Canadian immigrant voters cannot be less influential, and more influential, at the same time. In this paper, we adjudicate these rival positions by building from a general model of voter impact in Single Member Plurality elections. The analysis clarifies common arguments by mapping the abstract probability space of a decisive vote under varying conditions of constituency size, electoral competitiveness, and number of parties.