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    Canadian Political Science Association
    2020 Annual Conference Programme

    Confronting Political Divides
    Hosted at Western University
    Tuesday, June 2 to Thursday, June 4, 2020
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    Presidential Address:
    Barbara Arneil, CPSA President

    Origins:
    Colonies and Statistics

    Location:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 | 05:00pm to 06:00pm
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    KEYNOTE SPEAKER:
    Ayelet Shachar
    The Shifting Border:
    Legal Cartographies of Migration
    and Mobility

    Location:
    June 04, 2020 | 01:30 to 03:00 pm
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    Keynote Speaker: Marc Hetherington
    Why Modern Elections
    Feel Like a Matter of
    Life and Death

    Location:
    Wednesday, June 3, 2020 | 03:45pm to 05:15pm
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    Plenary Panel
    Indigenous Politics and
    the Problem of Canadian
    Political Science

    Location: Arts & Humanities Building - AHB 1R40
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 | 10:30am to 12:00pm

Local and Urban Politics



E10 - Municipal Voting Behaviour in Canada

Date: Jun 3 | Time: 10:30am to 12:00pm | Location:


Session Abstract: The study of local political behaviour in Canada is growing rapidly, largely aided by advancements in data collection methods. While scholars have learned a great deal about how electors think and behave towards this level of government, much remains unknown. This panel considers a series of papers about how electors view and act towards local elections.


Levels of Conceptualization and Local Politics: Toronto 2018: Scott Matthews (Memorial University of Newfoundland), Michael McGregor (Ryerson University), Laura Stephenson (Western University)
Abstract: Campbell et al. (1960) first introduced the “level of conceptualization” index as a means of measuring the sophistication of the American electorate. In addition to sophistication, however, the index provides insight into the manner in which electors view and think about the political world. Respondents are generally classified in terms of whether they view politics in terms of ideology, group benefits, the ‘nature of the times’ or some other way (a ‘no issue content’ group), with the presumption that each level indicates a lower level of sophistication than the last. Little research has been conducted using this measure below the national level, and to our knowledge, zero work has been done at the municipal level. Our paper fills the gap, and applies this framework to the 2018 Toronto mayoral election. Using survey data on 2,400 respondents from the Canadian Municipal Election Study, we consider how Torontonians viewed the mayoral candidates, applying the level of conceptualization framework. In doing so, we contribute to a growing conversation about how municipal voting behaviour does, and does not, differ from voting behaviour at other levels.


Homevoter Retrospection? Economic Voting in City Elections: Cameron Anderson (Western University), Jack Lucas (University of Calgary), Michael McGregor (Ryerson University)
Abstract: A large literature shows that changes in economic conditions have strong effects upon electoral support for incumbents. In particular, retrospective economic evaluations are widely shown to be one of the most important predictors of vote choice. In the field of urban politics, many political scientists find that home ownership – and concerns about the value of one’s home – are strongly related to municipal political participation and vote choice. In this paper, we combine these literatures, investigating the presence or absence of “homevoter retrospection” – that is, the role of retrospective assessments of home values on support for incumbents. We focus on the city of Calgary, which is an especially useful case, for two reasons. First, unlike many cities in which property values steadily increase over time, recent property values in Calgary have been more volatile. This allows us to better estimate the effect of changing property values on incumbent support. Second, we have address-level property assessment records for Calgary. By combining large-N individual-level survey data from the Canadian Municipal Election Study from the 2017 Calgary municipal election with these property assessment records, we are able to assess the role of both subjective and objective neighbourhood-level property value change on incumbent support. We close by exploring the determinants of subjective perceptions of neighbourhood property value change.


Council and Candidate Representation Effects on Immigrants’ Turnout in Canadian Municipal Elections: Rebecca Wallace (Ryerson University)
Abstract: Recent research from the Canadian Municipal Election Study finds that foreign-born electors are less likely than their native-born counterparts to participate in local elections. Although some analyses have explored potential explanations regarding immigrants’ turnout, such as major gaps in political knowledge and resources, this study focuses specifically on understanding if foreign-born voters are more inclined to participate in municipal elections when those running in their ward identify as immigrants and/or visible minorities. Immigrants and visible minority councilors remain underrepresented in most Canadian cities, and many questions remain about the ways in which this may affect perceptions of municipal politics for new Canadians. Indeed, Mississauga, ON – a majority minority city – only elected its first visible minority city councilor in the October 2018 municipal election. Using survey data from the CMES, this paper explores foreign-born electors’ turnout in eight major Canadian cities, comparing the engagement of foreign-born voters in wards with higher and lower proportions of minority candidates. This paper also reports on findings from a series of focus groups with foreign-born voters in the city of Mississauga regarding the representation of immigrants in local politics, exploring the ways that immigrants believe the lack of representation from foreign-born councilors affects their communities more generally. The paper concludes with recommendations about improving representation and turnout among foreign-born voters in Canadian municipal elections.


What Type of Candidates and Electors Support Online Voting in Local Elections?: Nicole Goodman (Brock University), Scott Pruysers (Dalhousie University), Zac Spicer (University of Toronto)
Abstract: Publicly, arguments in favour of the implementation of electronic voting tend to be framed around improving voter accessibility and turnout, while opponents tend to focus on security concerns (Goodman and Spicer, 2019). Questions have also been raised, however, regarding whether support for online voting might be related to ideology; in particular, it is believed that right-leaning individuals may be relatively unsupportive of online voting, given expectations of what type of elector might take advantage of this method (Goodman and Pyman, 2016). This concern is important both when online voting is being added to complement traditional paper ballots, and when paper voting is eliminated altogether in favor of fully electronic elections (as was the case in scores of Ontario municipalities in 2018). Using data from surveys of electors and candidates from the Electronic Elections Project (collected in 2018), this paper examines the extent to which ideology is related to support for online voting in Ontario municipal elections. We also leverage unique questions regarding the type of elector which respondents believe is most likely to vote online, to determine if ideological considerations are indeed relevant to debates about the modernization of local elections.




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