F07(a) - Democratic Deficit
Date: Jun 2 | Time: 03:15pm to 04:45pm | Location:
Chair/Président/Présidente : Feodor Snagovsky (Australian National University)
Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant (Queen's University)
Do Brazilians Believe in Conspiracy Theories? Mapping Causes and Determinants of Conspiratorial Thinking: Mathieu Turgeon (University of Western Ontario), John Kennedy (University of Western Ontario)
Abstract: As scholarly efforts to understand conspiracy theories continue to grow, there has been a greater push to understand these phenomena in new, lesser studied areas. The conspiracy theory literature in South America continues to develop but there is still a glaring gap in understanding these attitudes within a Brazilian context. Given the polarized environment that Brazil’s current political regime has created, we believe the country is a fertile ground to empirically test various conspiracy theory frameworks to better understand the extent to which these beliefs have taken hold in South America’s largest country. Utilizing a large online survey of thousands of Brazilian respondents, we aim to set the benchmark for understanding causal determinants of conspiratorial thinking in Brazil by testing the effects of various established frameworks that include psychological factors, motive categorization (epistemic, existential, and social), as well as demographic, political, and ideological factors. We will also examine acceptance of specific conspiracy theories related to the Brazilian political environment in hopes of understanding the types of distinct theories or scenarios that Brazilians are willing to accept.
Machine Learning Methods and the AfroBarometer: Moving Towards a Singular Model of “Dissatisfied Democrats” in African Countries: John Kennedy (University of Western Ontario)
Abstract: As public opinion polling becomes more prevalent and consistent in the region, we are now able to conduct more rigorous quantitative analysis on important political attitudes. Recently, a trend within the African behavioural literature has focused on creating statistical models to explain the rise of a “dissatisfied democrat” sub-population, where citizens are supportive of democratic principles but are critical of institutions who attempt to execute these principles. A handful of theoretical models have been created to test these claims, but no analysis has sought to compare them across a singular dataset. This paper will utilize the robust Afrobarometer data to recreate and compare these original models with the ultimate goal of creating singular “dissatisfied democrat” model at the country level. Considering the total number and extensive comparison of variables across this single dataset, issues of multicollinearity are likely so the methodological design will need to mitigate these effects using two-step methodological approach. This approach, based on machine learning principles, will be carried out via Elastic Net Regularization to identify which specific model components will be utilized as latent classes within a Finite Mixture Model (FMM). It is expected that results will consist of both social and attitudinal factors with none of the original eight models providing a dominant contribution to the creation of country-level singular models. This will contribute to providing a more fulsome quantitative understanding of “dissatisfied democrats” in the region and will allow for creation of a benchmark for future quantitative analyses or context-driven case studies.
Decisive or Dictatorial: Strongman-Style Leadership and Democratic Attitudes: Feodor Snagovsky (Australian National University), Annika Werner (Australian National University)
Abstract: An increasingly high percentage of citizens in advanced democracies express a preference for ‘strong leaders’ who ‘bend the rules’ or ‘ignore Parliament and the courts’ in survey research. Why do citizens in established democracies prefer ‘strongman’ leaders, and is this preference really an expression of anti-democratic attitudes? Existing research primarily examines the scope and contextual predictors of anti-democratic attitudes. By contrast, we aim to understand what citizens actually mean when they express these attitudes, which might range from a preference for a full-fledged dictator to a wish for a democrat who ‘gets things done’. To examine whether citizens see democratic values and strongman leadership as at odds with one another, we conduct a conjoint experiment of Australian and British respondents that compares respondents’ stated preferences for 'strongman’ leadership to their revealed preferences for hypothetical candidates who exhibit these leadership styles. We find that voters in both countries – even those who indicate a preference for ‘strong’ leaders in survey questions – are less likely to choose hypothetical candidates who ignore democratic institutions and refuse to compromise with other parties. Our study builds on an emerging literature on support for democracy and authoritarian regimes, as well as existing literature on input and output legitimacy.